Friday, March 30, 2007

Long Awaited And Anticipated (Final 4)

So, second things first, my dislike of UCLA Crappy Big Ten/Big East Team West is pretty well established , even without Jordan Farmar's coif. So I don't need to say that I'm rooting for Florida. But I'll say it anyway: Go Gators! Seriously, I hate this UCLA team this much:

Yup, that's my guy. Even if he is an NBA bust. (Sub conscious says "just like Vince Young, genius?")

As to the substance of the game, who on UCLA guards Corey Brewer or Al Horford? Lorenzo Matta weighs about 79 pounds, 43 of them in his schnozz, so he might get bullied. Luc Richard Mbah! Mbah! Mbah! a Moute has regressed, and seems to have caught a little of the Lou Roe* syndrome - as in "I'm not big enough to be a full time interior guy in The League, so watch me hit this J. Ok that was ugly, but watch this one. No seriously guys, the next one's money, I'm due!"

As for Brewer, UCLA did a pretty good job on Brandon Rush, but I think Brewer is a little tougher, so he'll be able to do some things. And if they have to help on Horford especially, that means open looks for Green and Humphrey. Bad news. On the other end, how does UCLA score? They can't really play their usual chuck-and-chase because the Gators have a bunch of big bodies, included Chris Richard, who I think would be a college star at any other school. (I'd take him over D.J. White or Mario Boggan to name two examples.) Brewer will be a tough matchup for Aflallo, who's also due for one of his periodic 4-17 games, and if Green or Humprhey (an underrated defender) can't contain Collison, Brewer could do that as well, in a pinch. Bottom line, UCLA has to play and shoot great while Florida plays mediocre or worse for the Bruins to have a chance. Florida by 11, not really that close though.

But the early game is the big daddy. Ohio State, Georgetown. Oden vs. Hibbert. The question is, who for OSU guards Jeff Green? Certainly not Oden, else he fouls out in 20 minutes of action. Ivan Harris is tall, but...he's tall. Ron Lewis or Jamar Butler? Plus G'Town has a bunch of other big, active bodies (including Ewing's kid, who's actual kinda good). This leads me to believe that OSU plays a lot of zone, unless Thad Motta is an idiot. Of course, judging by his coaching performance vs. Xavier, Thad Motta might be an idiot. If he wises up, G'Town's guards have to make shots from the outside. They can, but will they. On the other end, Georgetown also has matchup problems, especially if Oden can get Hibbert in foul trouble and/or tired, as I don't think Wallace or Sapp can stay in front of Conley. Butler, Lewis and Cook (who is so due for a huge game off the bench, I add) will get into the lane and create open looks for each other, and Harris, and dunks/putbacks for Oden. I see this as being a really entertaining, high scoring game that will turn on OSU's defense - if they keep Green from going off, they win.

Relatedly, if OSU beats Florida for the title, I win my office pool. So the above picks are completely unbiased.

* Just check out the box on the right at the link - it reads like the Early 90s Bust No Stars. Can you go wrong if you are in the same company as Shawn Respert and Beta Tyler Hansbrough (aka Eric Montross)?

1 comment:

Icepick said...

Well, good picks so far. I think you're not going to win your pool though.