Monday, January 16, 2006

Vince Young Will Suck in the NFL.

There, I said it. All you recent bandwagon jumpers out there take note.

As for people wondering why nobody in the NFL runs the option, coming soon to a stadium near you, Vince Young gets Blowed Up (and yes, I'm dumping the stock too...) Seriously, when the guy trying to tackle you is Matt Leinart's Wingman/Roommate, that's a slightly different beast then an Ed Reed or a Brian Urlacher. Remember, MLWRs made the offenses of Fresno State and Our Lady of Insufferable Alumni look like that of the ColtsSeahawks.

Consider, as frequent commenter Icepick has some good reasons to be skeptical about Vinsanity as an NFL signal-caller:
VY was also the most dominant physical presence on the field when his team had the ball. There wasn't even anyone close to his level. But what happens when he is up against a fair NFL defense? ALL of the athletes he will be facing will be tougher than almost anyone he would play against in college. And when he facing a team like the Bucs or the Bears? There will be several athletes on the defensive side of the ball almost as good as he is, if not better, from an athletic point of view. Will he be able to keep his poise in when he ISN'T far and away the best athlete on the field?

A lot of the QBs that go at the very top of the draft have dominated in college because of their superior athletic ability. But take a guy like Brady, who was a good QB at a good school. Brady probably wasn't the best athlete on his own team . . . So he never had the luxury of being able to take over a game solely by his athletic ability. He had to make correct decisions under fire when he wasn't the best guy out there.

And that, of course, is what playing QB in the NFL is all about. Even a lot of the great QBs in the NFL haven't been domina[nt] athletic presences.

. . .

All of these QBs had physical gifts that most of us can't imagine, but none of those guys would have been in the NFL if they weren't QBs. Those guys weren't going the Matt Jones route. But all of them were superior decision makers, especially under duress.

Even the extremely talented QBs who are great (think Elway as the best example), were great decision makers under fire. And those incredibly athletic QBs who had great athletic ability but not great decision making ability (think R. Cunningham, who was good but not great) just weren't contenders for Canton.

Consider, who are the recent QB's VY is most like? I'd probably start with Tommy Frazier or Michael Bishop. Maybe Eric Crouch. Except that the only one of those guys to even get a cup of coffee in the League (as a QB), Bishop, had an absolute canon for an arm, not the rubber-band/slingshot attached to Vince. Mike Vick you ask? Well first of all, if we are making a list of the most-overrated players in major sports, isn't Vick at or near the top of any list? Second, see above comment about arm-strength.

What are some of the other comaprisons? Kordell Stewart? (SLASH!) In the interest of not stereotyping based on race, Steve Young? Well, it may just be an issue of maturity and polish, but Steve Young certainly seems like a much smarter guy. (By way of comparison, McNabb had similar poise.) How many succesful NFL quarterbacks are not somewhat articulate when interviewed? Further, Steve played for several years on horrible Bucs teams without getting benched - how many years will Vince have before he is either broken (see Vick or Archie Manning) or declared a bust? And then Steve won the lottery and landed on the last of the Pre-Cap NFL dynasties - a great O-Line, Roger Craig/Ricky Watters and Tom Rathman in the backfield. Rice, John Taylor and a pre-attitude T.O. at receiver. A genius coach. Will Vince have any of those pieces at any point during his career?

Perhaps the best comparison is the one 'Pick ended with - Randall Cunningham, right down to the glacial throwing motion. (Who was the last succesful side-arm quarterback? No, David Carr does not count). Except for one magical season with the Vikes, Cunningham's performances could best be described by the British expression "flattering to deceive".

Now, Vince Young is not the "next Randall Cunningham," he's the first Vince Young. Given my recent probnosticating travails, I may have annointed him the next great one. (BTW, my one prediction from this past weekend? "Joey Porter is an idiot. 45-10 Colts.". Well, I'll take a 1 of 2 on that one...)

But there is a reason Reggie Bush was consisered the best player all season - he was the best player all season. Many people have one great game (Ryan Fitzpatrick, anyone?) and people lose their minds.


Slat Rat said...

If it's worth anything, I totally agree! I think VY will have a tough time in the NFL - especially if he goes to a weak team or a team with a bad coach.

Kierkegaard Lives said...

... I think you might very well be right on this. But I'd go a step further and say that Reggie Bush's potential in the NFL is also suspect. Watching Reggie Bush unable to get around the corner against Texas leaves me wondering how he plans to get around the corner against the even faster NFL defenses. For my money, I think it likely that Lendell White will be the most productive of the group, at least in the first couple of years.

Kaiser said...

I'm going to go ahead and be anti-thetical on this least to some extent. I'm sure you're shocked Pooh. I will be disabling YOU on this one, for the first time ever. (ducking)

First of all, we have NO idea what kind of decision maker VY will be in the NFL, and to me, this is the most important factor in an NFL QBs success on the top level. Look at a guy like Brad Johnson. He has gotten it done with limited athletic ability his entire career, not too mention a very limited arm. If I may be so bold as to compare BJ and VY...before you laugh, I submit for the record that VY led the NATION in QB efficiency this year. Therefore, and argument could be made that he was the most accurate passer in college football this season. Yards certainly play in to it, but if you looked at the recieving core that VY had this year, it was anything spectacular. Not, at least, compared to the USC wide recievers. The size and athletic ability that VY has are undoubtedly going to be assets on the next level, and even though yes, the level of competition increases in the NFL to a huge extent, it hasn't slowed down guys like Vick or Daunte (ducking again), who were head and shoulders above other college players when they were in college. So, basically what you're looking at with VY is a super-huge and -mobile Brad Johnson type, who may or may not be able to read NFL defenses. But the last point could be made about just about any quarterback coming out of the draft on any given year. How do you assess this? Who predicted that Carson Palmer would be this type?

I will now go check my freezer for severed heads....

Icepick said...

The last successful side-arm QB in the NFL was Bernie Kosar, I believe.

More later, where I will be at least partly disagreeing with you and that idiot Icepick (Why the hell are you listening to him anyway?), but now back to my spreadsheets....

Anonymous said...

Soooooo, mr pooh. How does it feel to put your foot in your mouth?

Pooh said...

You might have a point if I hadn't owned up to monstrous error almost a month ago. Thanks for asking.